Real Data SF

Back in May 2009, I showed that Noe Valley was not immune from the slump in prices affecting the rest of the city, despite suggestions to the contrary from real estate agents, mavens and media.
Have things gotten any better?  Well, no.  And maybe.
Here’s a chart showing percentage change in single family home prices for the [...]

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Case-Shiller published its closely watched indices yesterday.  Hooray! The broadest CS index shows that the rate of decline in the nation’s largest housing markets has reversed in recent months.  Now we’re only going down 16% year over year instead of 20%.
They also point out that we are now back to 2003 values, which also holds [...]

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After talking to people about my last post on Absorption Rates and the lack of a correlation between slower absorption and lower median prices (or faster absorption and higher prices), I got the impression that there was some curiosity — skepticism?  — about the underlying numbers.  So I thought a post mortem of sorts was [...]

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Thanks, Jean-Claude for making me take a second look at my methodology on my Absorption Chart.  I had anticipated your point about the lag between listing dates and sales but had unfortunately gotten the formula backwards in my chart — basically dividing inventory by lagging sales, rather than forward sales:  moral of the story:  don’t [...]

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Now hold on there, matie!  Basic economic theory  says more supply than demand, prices will fall, right?  Well take a look at this graph. It shows the absorption rate of single family home listings from January 2006 through December 2008 plotted against median prices (click to make it bigger):

“Absorption” is basically the number of weeks [...]

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The forecast for the California Housing Market

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The day after I posted my take on the Case-Shiller Index, they came out with July’s report (they’re always trailing three month averages) showing a continuing decline in the San Francisco MSA.  Wait for it:  down 27.3% from July 2007.  Are we worried?  Not that much.  Why not?  Read my October 27 blog:  “San Francisco” [...]

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Yup, that’s right folks.  According to the well-known and well-respected Case-Shiller Index published by Standard and Poor’s, San Francisco home prices in July 2008 were down a whopping 24.8% from a year previous.  How can this be, when you read right here that median prices were down YOY (year over year) a “mere”  11.3% in [...]

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I’ve been digging a bit deeper into the raw data that’s used to generate the beautiful graphs you can find here and which I used to generate the MLS District graphs in my blog of a few days ago.
So I thought I’d check how September 08’s median home prices (condos will come later) compared to [...]

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Condos often get hit hard in times of real estate turmoil, but that doesn’t seem to be happening in San Francisco — at least for now. This graph shows a 12 month moving average of actual condo sales through March.

The moving average “flattens” fluctuations, but the raw numbers show the March median and average [...]

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